Geographic and Temporal Trends in COVID-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

BACKGROUND: AKI is associated with mortality in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, its incidence, geographic distribution, and temporal trends since the start of the pandemic are understudied. METHODS: Electronic health record data were obtained from 53 health systems in the United States in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative. We selected hospitalized adults diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 6, 2020, and January 6, 2022. AKI was determined with serum creatinine and diagnosis codes. Time was divided into 16-week periods (P1-6) and geographical regions into Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Multivariable models were used to analyze the risk factors for AKI or mortality. RESULTS: Of a total cohort of 336,473, 129,176 (38%) patients had AKI. Fifty-six thousand three hundred and twenty-two (17%) lacked a diagnosis code but had AKI based on the change in serum creatinine. Similar to patients coded for AKI, these patients had higher mortality compared with those without AKI. The incidence of AKI was highest in P1 (47%; 23,097/48,947), lower in P2 (37%; 12,102/32,513), and relatively stable thereafter. Compared with the Midwest, the Northeast, South, and West had higher adjusted odds of AKI in P1. Subsequently, the South and West regions continued to have the highest relative AKI odds. In multivariable models, AKI defined by either serum creatinine or diagnostic code and the severity of AKI was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and distribution of COVID-19-associated AKI changed since the first wave of the pandemic in the United States.

Characterizing pandemic-related changes in smoking over time in a cohort of current and former smokers.

INTRODUCTION: We used a longitudinal cohort of U.S. adults who were current or former smokers to explore how three participant-reported factors - general stress, COVID-19 distress, and perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking - were associated with changes in smoking status. METHODS: Smoking status was assessed at three time points. Timepoint 1 status was assessed at a prior study completion (2018-2020). Timepoint 2 (start of the pandemic) and Timepoint 3 (early phase of the pandemic) statuses were assessed using an additional survey in 2020. After classifying participants into eight groups per these time points, we compared the means of participant-reported factors and used a linear regression model to adjust for covariates. RESULTS: Participants (n=392) were mostly female (73.9%) and non-Hispanic White (70.1%). Between Timepoints 2 and 3, abstinence rates decreased by 11%, and 40% of participants reported a smoking status change. Among those reporting a change and the highest general stress levels, newly abstinent participants had higher perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking than those who relapsed during pandemic (mean (standard deviation): 14.2 (3.3) vs. 12.6 (3.8)). Compared to participants who sustained smoking, those who sustained abstinence, on average, scored 1.94 less on the general stress scale (ßeta Coefficient (ß): -1.94, p-value <0.01) and 1.37 less on the perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking scale (ß: -1.37, p-value 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased abstinence rates are concerning. Patterns of reported factors were as expected for individuals who sustained their smoking behavior but not for those who changed. IMPLICATIONS: We observed an increase in smoking rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. In exploring how combinations of general stress levels, COVID-19 distress levels, and perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking were associated with changes in smoking, we observed expected patterns of these factors among individuals who sustained abstinence or smoking. Among individuals who changed smoking status and reported high stress levels, those who reported a higher perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking abstained from smoking. In contrast, those who reported a lower perceived risk of complications from COVID-19 related to smoking, started smoking. An intersectional perspective may be needed to understand smokers' pandemic-related behavior changes.

Clinical, social, and policy factors in COVID-19 cases and deaths: methodological considerations for feature selection and modeling in county-level analyses.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to evaluate how the choice of time interval contributes to the lack of consistency of SDoH variables that appear as important to COVID-19 disease burden within an analysis for both case counts and death counts. METHODS: This study identified SDoH variables associated with U.S county-level COVID-19 cumulative case and death incidence for six different periods: the first 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 days since each county had COVID-19 one case per 10,000 residents. The set of SDoH variables were in the following domains: resource deprivation, access to care/health resources, population characteristics, traveling behavior, vulnerable populations, and health status. A generalized variance inflation factor (GVIF) analysis was used to identify variables with high multicollinearity. For each dependent variable, a separate model was built for each of the time periods. We used a mixed-effect generalized linear modeling of counts normalized per 100,000 population using negative binomial regression. We performed a Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, an outlier test, and a dispersion test for each model. Sensitivity analysis included altering the county start date to the day each county reached 10 COVID-19 cases per 10,000. RESULTS: Ninety-seven percent (3059/3140) of the counties were represented in the final analysis. Six features proved important for both the main and sensitivity analysis: adults-with-college-degree, days-sheltering-in-place-at-start, prior-seven-day-median-time-home, percent-black, percent-foreign-born, over-65-years-of-age, black-white-segregation, and days-since-pandemic-start. These variables belonged to the following categories: COVID-19 related, vulnerable populations, and population characteristics. Our diagnostic results show that across our outcomes, the models of the shorter time periods (30 days, 60 days, and 900 days) have a better fit. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that the set of SDoH features that are significant for COVID-19 outcomes varies based on the time from the start date of the pandemic and when COVID-19 was present in a county. These results could assist researchers with variable selection and inform decision makers when creating public health policy.

Risk and Outcome of Breakthrough COVID-19 Infections in Vaccinated Patients With Cancer: Real-World Evidence From the National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

PURPOSE: To provide real-world evidence on risks and outcomes of breakthrough COVID-19 infections in vaccinated patients with cancer using the largest national cohort of COVID-19 cases and controls. METHODS: We used the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) to identify breakthrough infections between December 1, 2020, and May 31, 2021. We included patients partially or fully vaccinated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines with no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection record. Risks for breakthrough infection and severe outcomes were analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 6,860 breakthrough cases were identified within the N3C-vaccinated population, among whom 1,460 (21.3%) were patients with cancer. Solid tumors and hematologic malignancies had significantly higher risks for breakthrough infection (odds ratios [ORs] = 1.12, 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.23 and 4.64, 95% CI, 3.98 to 5.38) and severe outcomes (ORs = 1.33, 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.62 and 1.45, 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.95) compared with noncancer patients, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status, vaccine type, and vaccination date. Compared with solid tumors, hematologic malignancies were at increased risk for breakthrough infections (adjusted OR ranged from 2.07 for lymphoma to 7.25 for lymphoid leukemia). Breakthrough risk was reduced after the second vaccine dose for all cancers (OR = 0.04; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.05), and for Moderna's mRNA-1273 compared with Pfizer's BNT162b2 vaccine (OR = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.70), particularly in patients with multiple myeloma (OR = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.72). Medications with major immunosuppressive effects and bone marrow transplantation were strongly associated with breakthrough risk among the vaccinated population. CONCLUSION: Real-world evidence shows that patients with cancer, especially hematologic malignancies, are at higher risk for developing breakthrough infections and severe outcomes. Patients with vaccination were at markedly decreased risk for breakthrough infections. Further work is needed to assess boosters and new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Characterizing Long COVID: Deep Phenotype of a Complex Condition.

BACKGROUND: Numerous publications describe the clinical manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC or "long COVID"), but they are difficult to integrate because of heterogeneous methods and the lack of a standard for denoting the many phenotypic manifestations. Patient-led studies are of particular importance for understanding the natural history of COVID-19, but integration is hampered because they often use different terms to describe the same symptom or condition. This significant disparity in patient versus clinical characterization motivated the proposed ontological approach to specifying manifestations, which will improve capture and integration of future long COVID studies. METHODS: The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is a widely used standard for exchange and analysis of phenotypic abnormalities in human disease but has not yet been applied to the analysis of COVID-19. FUNDING: We identified 303 articles published before April 29, 2021, curated 59 relevant manuscripts that described clinical manifestations in 81 cohorts three weeks or more following acute COVID-19, and mapped 287 unique clinical findings to HPO terms. We present layperson synonyms and definitions that can be used to link patient self-report questionnaires to standard medical terminology. Long COVID clinical manifestations are not assessed consistently across studies, and most manifestations have been reported with a wide range of synonyms by different authors. Across at least 10 cohorts, authors reported 31 unique clinical features corresponding to HPO terms; the most commonly reported feature was Fatigue (median 45.1%) and the least commonly reported was Nausea (median 3.9%), but the reported percentages varied widely between studies. INTERPRETATION: Translating long COVID manifestations into computable HPO terms will improve analysis, data capture, and classification of long COVID patients. If researchers, clinicians, and patients share a common language, then studies can be compared/pooled more effectively. Furthermore, mapping lay terminology to HPO will help patients assist clinicians and researchers in creating phenotypic characterizations that are computationally accessible, thereby improving the stratification, diagnosis, and treatment of long COVID. FUNDING: U24TR002306; UL1TR001439; P30AG024832; GBMF4552; R01HG010067; UL1TR002535; K23HL128909; UL1TR002389; K99GM145411.

Outcomes of COVID-19 in Patients With Cancer: Report From the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C).

PURPOSE: Variation in risk of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with cancer and COVID-19 has been reported from relatively small cohorts. The NCATS' National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is a centralized data resource representing the largest multicenter cohort of COVID-19 cases and controls nationwide. We aimed to construct and characterize the cancer cohort within N3C and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality from COVID-19. METHODS: We used 4,382,085 patients from 50 US medical centers to construct a cohort of patients with cancer. We restricted analyses to adults ≥ 18 years old with a COVID-19-positive or COVID-19-negative diagnosis between January 1, 2020, and March 25, 2021. We followed N3C selection of an index encounter per patient for analyses. All analyses were performed in the N3C Data Enclave Palantir platform. RESULTS: A total of 398,579 adult patients with cancer were identified from the N3C cohort; 63,413 (15.9%) were COVID-19-positive. Most common represented cancers were skin (13.8%), breast (13.7%), prostate (10.6%), hematologic (10.5%), and GI cancers (10%). COVID-19 positivity was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.24). Among COVID-19-positive patients, age ≥ 65 years, male gender, Southern or Western US residence, an adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥ 4, hematologic malignancy, multitumor sites, and recent cytotoxic therapy were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. Patients who received recent immunotherapies or targeted therapies did not have higher risk of overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Using N3C, we assembled the largest nationally representative cohort of patients with cancer and COVID-19 to date. We identified demographic and clinical factors associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with cancer. Full characterization of the cohort will provide further insights into the effects of COVID-19 on cancer outcomes and the ability to continue specific cancer treatments.